Working paper: Knowledgeable Partisans and Inflation Expectations
More politically and quantitatively sophisticated partisans disagree more about inflation; more economically knowledgeable partisans disagree less.
Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study
Survey evidence that the partisan divide in inflation expectations is driven by partisans with high political knowledge.
Working paper: Shadow Rate Models and Monetary Policy
Estimated shadow rate models using forecasts and alternative assumptions about expectations formation disagree on the duration of the ZLB, but agree on the effects of policy changes on yields.
Treasury buybacks, the Federal Reserve’s portfolio, and changes in local supply
The 2000-2002 Treasury buyback program significantly increased yields of purchased bonds and bonds of similar time to maturity.
Working paper: Explosive returns: teaching event studies using hydrogen bomb development
Pedagogical guidance for using hydrogen bomb tests to teach classic finance event study methodology
Resting paper: Macroeconomic Disagreement in Treasury Yields
Dispersed information about the macroeconomy is a significant portion of the risk premium on long-term bonds.
Pre-PhD: Would Active Labor Market Policies Help Combat High U.S. Unemployment?
Using OECD data from 1998-2008, we estimate the effects of disaggregated types of labor market policies on unemployment. We find that training programs and job-search assistance reduce unemployment significantly. Using simple calculations based on Okun’s Law and assumptions about the productivity of newly employed workers, we show that these programs are also cost-effective: by reducing unemployment, they generate more GDP than they would cost the government to implement.