Working paper: Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study
Survey evidence that the partisan divide in inflation expectations is driven by partisans with high political knowledge.
Working paper: Shadow Rate Models and Monetary Policy
Estimated shadow rate models using forecasts and alternative assumptions about expectations formation disagree on the duration of the ZLB, but agree on the effects of policy changes on yields.
Treasury buybacks, the Federal Reserve’s portfolio, and changes in local supply
The 2000-2002 Treasury buyback program significantly increased yields of purchased bonds and bonds of similar time to maturity.
Working paper: Explosive returns: teaching event studies using hydrogen bomb development
Pedagogical guidance for using hydrogen bomb tests to teach classic finance event study methodology
Resting paper: Macroeconomic Disagreement in Treasury Yields
Dispersed information about the macroeconomy is a significant portion of the risk premium on long-term bonds.